The Ballon d’Or is coming back to Paris on September 22, 2025, and for the first time in almost two decades, the award is guaranteed to crown another new face. No Lionel Messi. No Cristiano Ronaldo. Even Rodri, who lifted the trophy last year, isn’t on the shortlist. That means the stage is open for a fresh generation to stake its claim.
But who are the players best positioned to win this prestigious trophy?
Summary:
- The 2025 Ballon d’Or, set for September 22 in Paris, guarantees a new winner for the first time in nearly two decades, with Messi, Ronaldo, and last year’s winner Rodri absent from the shortlist.
- Ousmane Dembélé is the strong favorite after a title-winning season with PSG, while 17-year-old Lamine Yamal of Barcelona emerges as a historic challenger, aiming to become the youngest ever recipient.
- Other nominees include Vitinha, Hakimi, Raphinha, Bellingham, Haaland, and Salah, but experts see the award as a showdown between Dembélé’s proven season and Yamal’s groundbreaking rise.
The Frontrunners
Ousmane Dembélé has turned himself into the heartbeat of Paris Saint-Germain. Injuries once defined his career, but this past season he produced staggering numbers: 33 goals and 15 assists, a Champions League title, and the Ligue 1 Player of the Year award. Luis Enrique, his club coach, has even said Dembélé can still “hit new heights” despite already hitting world-class form.
Then there is Lamine Yamal. At just 17, the Barcelona winger has become the youngest ever Ballon d’Or nominee. His breakthrough has been breathtaking: key goals in Spain’s Euro 2024 run, decisive performances in Barça’s domestic treble, and a swagger that makes it easy to forget he is still a teenager. If he wins, he will smash every record for the youngest recipient of the award.
Ousmane Dembélé is the overwhelming favorite in betting markets, currently priced at 1/7 to win the award—an implied probability of nearly 90%. Lamine Yamal remains the main challenger at around 9/2. The Ballon d’Or race can feel unpredictably thrilling—even a spin of the american roulette—where the underdog might win it all.
Other Names on the list
PSG dominate the nominees list, with Vitinha, Achraf Hakimi, and Raphinha all included after a great season. Vitinha in particular has been singled out in Spain for his role in midfield control, while Raphinha admitted simply making the ceremony feels like “already a victory”.
Elsewhere, Jude Bellingham, Erling Haaland, and Mohamed Salah are all on the 30-man list. Each had excellent seasons, but none have the combination of trophies and individual numbers that usually tip the scales in France Football’s vote.
Experts see Dembélé’s revival as the start of a new era
Former France international Emmanuel Petit has openly backed Dembélé, calling his season “a career reborn” and arguing that PSG finally have a player who delivers consistently on the big stage. Rodri, last year’s winner, was more diplomatic when asked for his favorites, but pointed out Yamal and Pedri as two names who could define the next era.
This year’s ceremony feels like a watershed. Since 2008, the Ballon d’Or has been stitched to the rivalry of Messi and Ronaldo, with Luka Modrić, Karim Benzema, and Rodri the only men to briefly interrupt their reign.
That cycle is finished. Whoever wins in 2025 will symbolize the start of a new order — one where teenagers like Yamal can stand shoulder to shoulder with stars in their prime.
What to Expect in Paris
The gala takes place at the Théâtre du Châtelet, the traditional home of the award. Expect the usual spectacle: past winners walking the red carpet, candidates sitting nervously with families and teammates, and social media exploding the moment the envelope opens.
But this year, more than the glitz, there is genuine suspense. Dembélé has the trophies and the stats. Yamal has the magic of youth and the sense of destiny. A victory for either would write history in completely different ways.
FAQs
Why is the 2025 Ballon d’Or considered historic?
The 2025 edition breaks with tradition because it will be the first since 2008 not dominated by Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. For nearly 20 years, those two icons monopolized the award, interrupted only by Modrić, Benzema, and Rodri. This year’s shortlist has no previous winner, which means football fans are about to witness the crowning of a new face — something that has become a rarity in modern football.
How does France Football decide the Ballon d’Or winner?
The award is organized by France Football magazine. Journalists from around the world vote based on three main criteria: individual performance, team achievements, and overall talent and sportsmanship. The voting panel has shifted in recent years to give more weight to international journalists, meaning the award now reflects a global view rather than just European bias.
Could a teenager realistically win the Ballon d’Or?
Yes — and that’s why Lamine Yamal’s nomination is so significant. At 17, he is the youngest player ever nominated. No teenager has ever won the Ballon d’Or, but his role in Spain’s Euro 2024 campaign and Barcelona’s treble puts him firmly in the conversation. If he were to win, it would redefine how football views age and maturity at the elite level.
